BY PHILIP KOTLER and CHRISTIAN SARKAR
Predicting the winner of a U.S. Presidential election is especially hard in this election year. The candidates are running close to 50-50 and voters are highly polarized. The two candidates have extremely different views of what is the Common Good.
So we choose not to make a prediction.
However, we want to vote. If this was an election in Australia, we would have to vote or pay a fee for not voting. Furthermore, we would have to rank our candidate preferences if there are three or more candidates.
But we are American citizens. Also, we are largely independent voters. We aren’t one-issue voter although this would make it easy. For example, what if we cared only about abortion and voted for the candidate who favors abortion rights for women. We really want to consider all the policy differences between the two candidates.
How can we do that?
Let’s imagine the economic, social and political outcomes that are likely to follow from each candidate being elected.
Our best step is to list the outcomes that we expect to follow with each candidate if elected. We stand ready to revise our views. In fact, we invite you, the reader, to look at the two lists. Feel free to add missing outcomes.
You can send your revised list to us >> info (at) fixcapitalism dot com >>
Here are our initial lists:
What will happen if Trump wins the 2024 Presidency?
- Economic chaos as higher prices result from Trump’s rising tariffs and irrational trade policies
- Cutbacks and/or elimination of Social Security, Medicare, and the possible repeal of Obamacare
- Social chaos with increased violence towards minorities, workers, and union organizers
- Political arrests targeting opponents (Trump has also said anyone criticizing the Supreme Court should be jailed)
- Government appointments not based on merit but ideology (existing government employees will be purged unless they are loyal to Trump)
- Fewer dependable allies from abroad as NATO(and the EU) is abandoned; China becomes stronger as Taiwan is abandoned
- Russian power increases as Ukraine is left to itself; US pivots to possible war against Iran
- Climate problems worsen – pollution regulations are eliminated; drilling allowed in National Parks
- Polarization and hatred worsen as “remigration” and forced deportation is scaled up
- Leadership focuses on past grievances – including personal vendettas against people who didn’t support Trump
- Possibility of mental deterioration of Trump after election – leading to the installation of JD Vance as President
- Women lose their reproductive rights, and other civil rights as well
- More tax cuts for the rich and corporate interests, leading to further deficits (military programs to increase at the expense of everything else)
- Increase in Christian Nationalism and intolerance for other faiths
- Implementation of Project 2025 and abandonment of constitutional boundaries
What will happen if Harris wins the Presidency?
- Lower prices as Inflation continues to fall; corporate price-gouging is dissuaded
- Major job creation with new factories and new investments in renewabletechnologies
- Higher taxes on the super-rich and corporate profits to support better health and education – this funds Social Security and eliminates austerity measures
- Strong dependable allies abroad – NATO is supported to create a better, secure future
- More progress in controlling climate problems – investment in renewables and battery technologies
- Her international experience will further peacemaking to reduce international disputes
- Union support instead of opposition and more worker benefits including a higher minimum wage
- Less polarization and more goodwill amongst the general population; opposition to the culture wars
- Leadership is younger and motivating for younger generations
- Women’s rights are secured nationally and across states; abortion rights are strengthened
- Church and state are kept separate and America avoids a decline into Christian Nationalism by embracing a culture of respect
- Increased regional investments in Latin America to encourage residents to remain in their home countries
- Support for a two-state solution regarding Israel and Palestine
- Support for job-creation through small business and start-up incentives
- Corporates and billionaires pay a fairer share of taxes
Does this comparison of likely outcomes help you choose your candidate?
ASK: Which candidate is working for the Common Good? Which candiadte is working for the future wellbeing of our children? Which candidate has demonstrated a commitment to justice?
May the best candidate win.